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B E A R I N G S
Meet the Allies For those of us who watched the Gulf War unfold on CNN, the images were eerily familiar — bright, flashing streaks of light against a filtered greenish-black sky. In the early morning hours of Oct. 7, the United States launched an initial strike against Afghanistan, a little less than a month after the tragic terrorist attacks on America. Within hours of the air strikes, President Bush addressed the nation, stating, “We will not waver, we will not tire, we will not falter and we will not fail.” Continuing the theme of global cooperation against terrorism, he added, “Peace and freedom will prevail.” As the images of war broke across the airwaves and the nation once again sat glued in front of its collective television sets, other images straggled in from the Middle East. Quickly, pictures of our new ally in Afghanistan entered into heavy rotation. It was, for many, an introduction to the Northern Alliance. A collection of opposition forces united mostly by their hatred for the Taliban government, the Northern Alliance launched its own attack in the wake of U.S. missiles, striking the Taliban militia from an air force base 25 miles north of Kabul. The Taliban forces returned fire using BM-21 rockets made in the Soviet Union. Did these images scare the hell out of anyone else? Maybe it was the report on Dateline NBC of these ragtag troops learning to fire machine guns or posing with their outdated artillery, but either way, I immediately thought of Vietnam and hoped that this wouldn’t turn into another example of the United States propping up a hapless ally. It is certain that the Northern Alliance’s next move will be to use American might to launch an attack on Kabul. After years of struggle, the Northern Alliance now controls only about 5 percent of Afghanistan. Opposition leaders want Afghans to have the right of self-determination, but thus far have not been able to rally them to their cause. Reportedly, the Northern Alliance has committed the same human rights violations that it accuses the Taliban of, including executions, opium trafficking and looting the homes of Taliban supporters. These kinds of allegations may taint the U.S.-led coalition as the war escalates, especially the claim that the Northern Alliance uses drug profits and weapons smuggling to finance its operations. Northern Alliance officials denounce the charges, but are these the kinds of people the nation wants as allies? There are numerous challenges to relying on the Northern Alliance, just as there were to backing the South Vietnamese. One commonly held belief following the Sept. 11 attack is that the United States did not have enough intelligence on the ground in Afghanistan. That same lack of hard intelligence — not to mention a lack of familiarity with the physical environment — would haunt a ground campaign. Indeed, the failure of the Soviets should be a warning. Bush deftly dodged what’s fast becoming "The Vietnam Question" during his news conference Thursday night. In response to a question about how the United States could avoid a Vietnam-type quagmire, Bush talked about freezing assets, reaching out to other countries and, as always, delivering justice. “[S]urely but slowly we’re smoking al-Qaida out of their caves so we can bring them to justice,” Bush said, adding that the United States will remain involved “as long as it takes’ to “bring al-Qaida to justice.” Later, when asked about building a new government in Afghanistan, Bush said this might be a job for the United Nations. “My focus is bringing al-Qaida to justice and saying to the host government, "’You had your chance to deliver.’" Got it. The United States, however, already has approximately 29,000 military personnel, 349 military aircraft, one Amphibious Ready Group, and two Carrier Battle Groups currently deployed in and around Afghanistan. In addition, about 27,000 members of the National Reserves have been called up to active duty. Air Force General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joints Chiefs of Staff, has eluded questions about the use of American ground troops, but has reiterated that the bulk of the forces need to be internal. Myers explained, “The only way that the Afghan people are going to be successful in heaving the terrorist network out of their country is to be successful against ” that portion of Taliban and the Taliban leadership that are so closely linked to the al-Qaida .” However, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld recently admitted, “It’s unlikely that the air strikes will rock the Taliban back on their heels. They do not have high-value targets or assets that are the kinds of things that would lend themselves to substantial damage from the air.” Obviously this announcement indicates the need for additional ground forces. Taliban leaders anticipate the difficulties the United States will have in a ground war and are virtually begging America to send in troops. Abdul Salam Zaeef, the Taliban ambassador to Pakistan, announced on the one-month anniversary of the terrorist attacks, “When the Americans enter Afghanistan, here will start the real war — not now.” Bush has declared that the United States doesn’t ‘do nation-building,” but what kind of mess is going to develop in the region after America gets Osama bin Laden? In the early 1990s, Northern Alliance leaders were unsuccessful in running the country, resulting in civil war and more than 25,000 casualties. Their futility basically sent Afghanistan into a tailspin that resulted in local leaders carving the nation into little fiefdoms. Some reports have speculated that the Northern Alliance doesn’t even have a true leader, even at this critical juncture. Ahmed Shah Massoud, a key bin Laden rival, was killed in a suicide bombing just prior to Sept. 11. It seems no one is quite sure who has taken over the reigns of the Alliance since his death. Before the Northern Alliance is ready to take on a larger role in the future of Afghanistan, it will have to overcome internal factions and longtime squabbles. Some of its current leaders have had their loyalties questioned publicly; in particular, General Abdul Rashid Dostum switched sides several times in the 1990s. The simple question becomes whether these factions can unite to form a viable government, if and when the Taliban is deposed. More importantly, how will native Afghans react to a government propped up by American power once the war ends? Would this trigger the kind of holy war bin Laden hopes to arouse? The South Vietnamese were never able to win the hearts of the nation during the Vietnam era and the nation has remained a hot spot ever since. There were many lessons learned from the Vietnam War. Let’s hope that the Bush administration won’t repeat the mistakes made by presidents ranging from Eisenhower to Nixon in entrusting the fate of a nation to a ragtag alliance that has been as successful fighting itself as it has the enemy. Bob Batchelor is a writer and historian based in San Rafael, Calif. He is the author of The 1900s, a book about the intersection of popular culture and history in the first decade of the 20th century (Greenwood, 2002).
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